+130%. And the Story Is Just Getting Started.
Bold Bets on Category-Defining Companies
Oscar Health is up approximately 130% from where I recommended it aggressively in the $12 range. And I want to talk about what that means, what comes next, and where my head is at right now.
But first. The most important lesson this trade has taught me.
The Only Edge That Matters
When the market sold off and Oscar fell back toward $11, I wrote a note called “Staying the Course. Adding to the Course.”
I said that if you know what you own, and the company is firing on all cylinders, the only thing that changes during a selloff is the price. Not the business. Not the thesis. Not the fundamentals.
Many investors did not double their money on Oscar because they could not hold it.
They panic sold. Trimmed. Psychologically could not resist doing something. And the human brain is wired to interpret pain as a signal to act.
Investing is a game of temperament and emotional intelligence. The investor who understands a business deeply and can sit through volatility without flinching will always outperform the investor who is slightly smarter but emotionally fragile.
Charlie Munger described it through inversion better than anyone. Instead of asking how to succeed, ask how to fail. Most investors fail because they cannot control their own psychology. Avoid that failure mode and the math takes care of itself.
Oscar From Here
The thesis is intact and the path forward is straightforward. $18.7 to $19.0 billion in guided 2026 revenue. Health insurers trade at roughly 1x sales. At 1x revenue Oscar is a $19 billion company. Current market cap is approximately $9.5 billion. That is a clean double from here on the base case alone. Before pricing in Lucie. Before pricing in ICHRA expansion. Before pricing in what Bertolini is actually building.
$OSCR remains one of the most interesting businesses I have covered at FJ Research and the $19 billion path is as clear as any I have seen.
The Oscar experience proved what I have always believed. You need only a few great ideas in this life to reach financial independence and personal freedom.
Where My Attention Is Now
The most interesting companies that exist right now are privately held. That is where I am spending my research time.
One company I will definitely participate in is Anthropic.
I want to be transparent about why. I use Claude daily. Not occasionally. Daily. As a power user across research, analysis, and portfolio thinking, I have watched this product improve at a pace that genuinely surprises me. The quality of reasoning, the nuance, the intellectual honesty built into the responses is categorically different from what I experienced with other AI tools. Anthropic has made a deliberate choice to build slowly, safely, and with genuine intellectual rigour. That approach is less exciting in the short term and more durable in the long term. That is exactly the kind of company I want to own.
Anthropic filed confidentially for an IPO on June 1, 2026. The expected listing window is October to December 2026 at a valuation approaching $1 trillion. Revenue run rate crossed $47 billion in May and is compounding rapidly.
I am less interested in OpenAI. The corporate structure & the nonprofit conversion complexity create alignment questions I cannot fully resolve.
Anthropic is different. Dario and Daniela Amodei built this company around a mission of safe and beneficial AI. That mission is increasingly looking like a competitive advantage rather than a constraint. The enterprise adoption numbers confirm it.
On Concentration
People ask me regularly how I can hold such a concentrated portfolio.
My honest answer: I feel safer owning a few businesses I know inside out than owning twenty businesses where I cannot name the CEO.
Concentration is the natural result of doing the work properly. When you understand a business at its core, its economics, its moat, its management, its runway, the rational response is to own as much of it as conviction allows. Owning twenty names is an admission that you do not have conviction in any of them.
The Oscar trade proved this. The investors who made +130% were the ones who understood the business well enough to hold it through the volatility. The ones who trimmed at $14 because it felt uncomfortable missed the move entirely.
You do not need many ideas. You need a few great ones and the discipline to hold them.
My complete current holdings, company names, entry prices, and portfolio weight, are updated live and available exclusively to paid members.
If you want to know exactly what I own and what I paid for it, that page is here:
Thank you for your attention to this matter.
FJ
This is not financial advice. Do your own due diligence.
I believe in Anthropic as well. Any way to get exposure before IPO?