2036

Where This Is Most Likely Heading

I do not claim to know the future. What follows is my current best estimate of the world in 2036, based on the structural forces I have been tracking. I will update it when the evidence changes.

The core picture

By 2036 the decisive divide will be between people who own productive capability and people who operate it.

AI will have restructured who can create value at scale. The companies and individuals that control the best models, data, compute & distribution will sit in a different economic class from everyone else.

I put roughly 70% probability on a world where a small number of category-defining companies and the people behind them capture a large share of the economic upside from AI, robotics & related infrastructure. The remaining 30% covers scenarios where regulation, open-source diffusion or unexpected political pushback slows that concentration more than expected.

Three structural forces

1.) Ownership of capability becomes the central economic question.

Human labor will still exist but its relative value will keep falling in many knowledge and routine service jobs. The people and firms that own the systems that replace or amplify labor will do disproportionately well.

2.) Power shifts from the edges first.

New advantages tend to appear in markets, geographies & technical domains that existing institutions undervalue. By the time the “center” notices and tries to regulate or copy, the lead is often already substantial.

3.) Democratic legitimacy lags technological speed.

The decisions that shape the next decade of AI development are being made largely inside private labs and a handful of companies. Governments will react, sometimes effectively, often slowly. The gap between what technology can do and what political systems can govern will remain one of the defining tensions of the 2030s.

Ok… and what does this mean in real life?

For investing, the implication is straightforward. The highest expected returns will sit with the few companies that become the clear category owners in the key layers: foundation models/ infrastructure, enterprise adoption layers, physical AI/ robotics & the supporting energy/ compute stack.

For living, the implication is ownership and optionality. Relying solely on wages from work that can be automated is a weaker position than it was ten years ago. Building or owning something that benefits from the shift is stronger.

I’m not calling for utopia and I’m not calling for collapse either. I’m just laying out the range of outcomes that currently looks most likely given the incentives and where the technology is actually going. The future isn’t “locked in” but the forces already moving look stronger than most of the political and cultural pushback I see right now.

This is the map I’m working with right now & I’ll update it when reality forces the update.

Thanks for reading!

FJ

And here’s how I personally position myself for the decade ahead: