I Bought Amazon Yesterday. Here Is Why.

Bold Bets on Category-Defining Companies

I initiated a position in Amazon yesterday at $249 per share. It is now my fourth stock and I want to be straightforward about the thesis because there is not much to hide here.

Amazon is the most analyzed company on earth. Every analyst covers it. Almost every fund owns it. There is no secret insight I can offer that 10,000 smarter people have not already written about. I am not going to pretend otherwise.

The reason the stock is where it is right now is simple. The market hates uncertainty. And right now the market looks at Amazon’s $200 billion annual capex commitment and asks one question: when does this pay off? The answer is not immediately visible and markets do not like waiting.

But here is what I keep coming back to. Amazon has done this before. Multiple times. AWS looked insane when they built it. The fulfillment network looked insane when they built it. Prime looked insane when they announced it. Every single time the market doubted the capital commitment, Amazon was right and the market was wrong. I have no strong reason to believe this time is different.

The Anthropic stake adds a layer most people are still not fully pricing. Google’s Q1 2026 earnings were materially impacted by its Anthropic valuation mark-up. Amazon owns roughly 7.8% of Anthropic. If Anthropic reaches the $900 billion valuation currently being discussed, that stake alone becomes a number worth paying attention to.

Today at their Dartford fulfillment center Amazon showcased the next generation Proteus robot. You tell it what needs to be done. It figures out the priority, the route, the timing. Conversational prompts. No programming. STARK, their robotic tote handling system, rolls out to 15 European sites by 2027. This is physical AI being deployed at scale inside the world’s largest logistics operation. The efficiency benefits from this are arriving.

This is a sentiment “trade” as much as anything else. Google two years ago. Meta in 2022. Both widely known, both heavily analyzed, both deeply out of favor, both obvious once sentiment shifted. Amazon today feels the same. The business is not broken. The story is not over. The market is just waiting for proof that the capex was worth it. When that proof arrives, and I believe it will, the sentiment shift will be fast.

Am I early? No. Am I late? No. Sometimes the smartest trade is not the contrarian one. Sometimes it pays to be in the crowded trade but above the wave. When you own a business this dominant, this liquid, this institutionally backed, the downside is structurally protected in a way that a small cap bet simply cannot offer. You are not alone in this trade.

My price target is $500. That is roughly a double from my entry & it’s not a wild assumption. It is what happens when sentiment normalizes, AI capex starts showing up in margin expansion, physical robotics drives operational efficiency at scale, and Anthropic’s valuation gets properly reflected in the stock. Based on everything I can see today, Amazon is maybe not THE best but one of the best risk reward opportunities available in the market right now. The kind of material upside with structural downside protection that FJ Research exists to find.

Amazon is a royalty on human consumption. More people buying more things online for the rest of my life. I like that bet.

One last thing before I close.

Over the past few days a meaningful number of Mandarin-speaking readers have joined FJ Research. Welcome :)

欢迎来到 FJ Research。无论您身在何处，我们都在寻找同样的东西：改变游戏规则的公司，在世界发现它们之前.

FJ

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