Oscar Health Is Up. I Am Not Selling a Single Share.

Oscar Health is up significantly over the past few weeks.

For everyone who followed the research and held through the noise, you are sitting on healthy gains right now. That feels good. It should.

But I want to be direct about something.

The question I have been getting most is whether I am taking profits or reducing my position. The answer is no. Not a single share.

Here is my thinking.

I did not buy Oscar Health to make 30% or 50%. I bought it because I believe this is a category-defining company in the early innings of a fundamental transformation of American healthcare. The ICHRA tailwind is just beginning. Lucie Health Marketplace just launched. 3.2 million members growing at 56% year over year. Operating income up 2.5x. Medical loss ratio at 70.5%, way more efficient than UnitedHealth.

Here is the simple math. Oscar is guiding for approximately $18.5 billion in revenue for 2026. The current market cap is around $6 billion. That means Oscar trades at roughly 0.5x revenue — half the multiple of its insurance peers. If Oscar reaches its guidance and gets valued at just 1x revenue which is a conservative multiple for a profitable, growing business, that implies a market cap of approximately $18 to $20 billion. That is a 3x from today’s price.

And the one thing you can never do with a potential 10-bagger is sell it after a 100% return. The biggest gains in investing history were made by people who refused to sell early. The biggest regrets were made by people who did.

I am holding tight. I am not moving an inch.

As always — this is not financial advice. I am a private investor sharing my own thinking and my own conviction. Do your own research. Make your own decisions.

But if you ask me what I am doing — I am sitting on my hands and watching the thesis play out exactly as written.

The full deep dive on what comes next for Oscar is waiting inside the paid community. $49 a year. Join the investors who saw this coming.