They call me one of the Oscar Health OG’s around here. I covered the stock early and initiated a position when almost nobody wanted to hear about it. My average cost is $13.19. As of today that position is up roughly +144%.
I watched the full Investor Day materials (September 16, 2026), and the business looks stronger than ever.
A few numbers that matter:
They raised the 2026 earnings outlook by $100 million.
Full-year 2026 guidance now at $18.7–19 billion in revenue and $600–800 million in earnings from operations.
Membership has grown from about 1.6 million in mid-2024 to roughly 3 million by mid-2026.
By 2029 they are targeting more than 20% revenue CAGR, 5–7% operating margins, and EPS above $4.
They plan to expand into another 400–600 counties and push national ACA market share toward 18%.
Lucie (the marketplace side) is being positioned as a long-term higher-margin engine with a multi-hundred-billion-dollar opportunity set.
The core message from management: the ACA is just the foundation. They want to turn the individual market into the main consumer health platform in the United States and own both the insurance side and the shopping layer.
I still see Oscar as a category-defining company in the making. The combination of a scaled insurance book, a growing marketplace, and AI-first technology is “special” in this industry, that mainly operates as if we’re in the 70’s. That is exactly why early conviction required both imagination AND good human judgment. Most people only wanted to look at the losses and the “here and now”. The ones who stayed laser focused on the trajectory are the ones sitting on the beautiful gains today.
From current levels I believe the stock still has a realistic path to double over the coming years if they keep executing on the plan they just laid out. I remain a long-term owner.
Thank you for your attention to this matter.
Happy Saturday ;)
FJ
Current positions & avg. entry
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